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The latest quarterly InterTradeIreland Business Monitor Report (Jul-Sep 2017) shows that despite the UK voting to leave the EU over 12 months ago, the proportion of companies with a plan in place to deal with the potential outcomes of Brexit remains low at 5%. 41% of those with cross-border sales reported that Brexit had already had a negative impact on their business.
InterTradeIreland - Cross-Border Trade & Supply Chain Linkages
The report shows that for over half (51%) of Irish exporters, NI is the destination for more than 50% of their exports, while for just over 25% of Irish firms, NI is the destination for more than 95% of their exports. Key findings include: NI accounts for between 10-12% of total exports from Ireland to the UK as a whole and accounted for 7-8% of imports. Given that the population of NI makes up less than 3% of the UK, this shows the closeness of the economic ties between the two. The reports finds a very signiﬁcant share of cross-border trade is accounted for by ﬁrms that trade in both directions. These two-way traders make up around 18% of ﬁrms but accounted for over 60% of exports, and over 70% of imports.
InterTradeIreland - Potential impact of WTO tariffs on cross-border trade
The nature of the trade arrangements that will be in place following the exit of the UK from the EU is currently unknown and will be the subject of considerable negotiation over the coming years. To inform this process, this research examines current cross-border trading patterns and considers the potential impacts on overall trade of the application of current EU WTO tariffs. The impact of Non-Tariff Barriers (NTB’s) and changes to the euro-sterling exchange rate are also examined. The total impact on trade is derived from a combination of the size of the price increase caused by the tariff and NTBs and the sensitivity of trade to price changes.
This report was funded by the Department of Jobs Enterprise and Innovation and undertaken by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and developed with input from the Department of Jobs Enterprise and Innovation, Department of Agriculture, Food & the Marine, Revenue Commissioners and the Department for the Economy.